Mapp & Weston Estate Agents

Today's Story...Our 2012 Predictions


Forget George Osborn, Mervyn King and The Nationwide House Price Survey: Here is my prediction for the property market in Horsham for 2012:

i)                    House prices won’t beat inflation: This is a good thing because with future curbs on lending it is inevitable that the property market needs to adjust down. This can happen the painful way; large falls like the 20% we have already seen two years ago, or the easy way where inflation runs a little ahead for a few years. In the relatively affluent south-east where there is great pressure on accommodation and good employment levels, we think this “gentle” re-adjustment is the way it will go. My guess is that we will see about 3% to 5% price rises depending on the type of property.

ii)                   We all want the same thing: First time buyers and investors want cheaper buying opportunities, existing home owners will lose some equity on the sale but gain money back on a cheaper ongoing purchase so the myth that moving house is only good when prices are ballooning is well and truly debunked.

iii)                 It is all about volume now: A healthy housing market needs volume so there are plenty of homes to buy and sellers return to a situation where they know they will sell in a reasonable timescale. To get back to this happy state, prices need to fall relative to our incomes. I predict that in Horsham we will see a gradual increase in the volume of transactions in 2012, indeed we have seen the beginning of this at the tail end of 2011 in October and November when ourselves and several fellow agents I have spoken to noticed this.

iv)                 If you are thinking of selling or buying in 2012 come and see us. We will give you a bullshit-free assessment of the market backed up with evidence of recent sales in your area of interest. If any agent starts telling you about “Booming Prices” or “Record Sales Levels” walk away because it isn’t happening unless you happen to live in China or India.


Chris Skelton FNAEA.

Mapp & Company

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